As the spookiest night of the year approaches, all eyes are on XRP (currently trading at $0.52) to see whether it will conjure a Halloween rally.

With a 24-hour trading volume of $1.12 billion and a market cap of $29.70 billion, XRP accounts for 1.26% of the total crypto market, at the time of publication.

However, despite its stature, the token has been haunted by some troubling trends, the asset is down -6% over the past year, underperforming 84% of the top 100 crypto assets—a reminder that even the big players aren’t immune to the market’s volatility.

Additionally, XRP is lagging behind Bitcoin and Ethereum in performance, currently trading well below its 200-day simple moving average. With only 14 green days in the past 30 days (47%), the token appears to be on shaky ground.

Technically speaking, XRP is testing its support level at $0.50204, with resistance looming at $0.5583, showing a -0.44% dip in the last 24 hours.

XRP 24-hour price chart. Source: Finbold

Halloween XRP 2024 forecast

Advanced AI algorithms from PricePredictions are predicting at a potential decline for XRP, projecting a price of $0.492 on October 31, 2024.

XRP Halloween price forecast. Source: PricePredictions

This would mark a 5.38% drop from the current price of $0.52, If indicators like Bollinger Bands (BB), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Average True Range (ATR) follow the bearish trajectory suggested by technical analysis.

However, community sentiment tells a different story. According to data from CoinMarketCap, out of 49,142 votes, an overwhelming 84% of voters are betting on a price rise for XRP, while only 16% remain bearish.

XRP community sentiment. Source: CoinMarketCap

Despite the technical indicators flashing warning signs, optimism still runs deep among retail traders.

Legal shadows loom large

XRP’s performance has been weighed down by more than just technical factors. Ripple’s ongoing legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has undoubtedly played a significant role in slowing the token’s momentum.

With a court case that has captivated the crypto world, Ripple’s legal struggles have caused some institutional investors to hesitate. This legal uncertainty could be why XRP has seen slower growth than its competitors, Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of which have surged past the token in the last 12 months.

Yet, the long-term community belief in XRP’s potential is difficult to ignore. XRP remains -87% off its all-time high, but the asset continues to hold a firm grip on its loyal followers, who are hopeful that once the legal dust settles, XRP will reclaim its former glory.

For now, its 5.84% annual inflation rate and murky legal future keep traders guessing.