A widely followed crypto analyst is issuing a Bitcoin warning after BTC‘s failed breakout and dip to the $66,000 range early Monday.

In a new video update, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells his 818,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin is showing similarities to a 2019 correction.

“If Bitcoin does start to fade, if it can’t break through this [resistance around $70,000], if it starts to fade, then it’ll start to show more of those 2019 similarities… The thing that hasn’t necessarily run its course is that when Bitcoin broke out [in 2019], we had already had 75 basis points of rate cuts and QE (quantitative easing). Now we don’t really have that.”

Cowen suggests it may take another Fed rate cut to push Bitcoin beyond the resistance level.

“If for whatever reason Bitcoin gets rejected and people wonder what the hell is going on, then I think you just come back to this and say, Well, maybe we need another rate cut and maybe we need QE in order to get that higher high.”

Bitcoin is trading for $66,948 at time of writing, down 2.4% in the last 24 hours.

Looking out for the rest of the year, Cowen tells his 869,100 followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) may hit 60% in less than three months. BTC.D tracks the percentage of the total crypto market cap that belongs to Bitcoin.

“After the first rate cut, I said BTC dominance would spike to 59%, then have a pullback, then a final slow grind to 60% before EOY (end of the year). I think this path is still on track. BTC dominance to 60% before EOY.”

The analyst is also closely watching the US Dollar Index (DXY), a benchmark of the value of the US dollar compared to a basket of other widely traded global currencies.

A strengthening DXY may suggest increased selling pressure on Bitcoin and other digital assets as investors may move their money into the dollar.

“Another week, and DXY continues to head higher. So many were convinced that DXY was going to crash a few weeks ago. I think it keeps moving up through EOY, then drops in 2025.”

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