Ripple‘s court win has not yet resolved the uncertainty around XRP.

Retail interest has waned, leading to concerns about XRP‘s future.

Global shifts have surfaced as support for XRP, though concerns remain.

XRP has been a central topic in crypto for years. As one of the oldest digital assets, it’s still a source of debate among investors, regulators, and analysts. Known for its role as a bridge currency in cross-border payments, XRP’s potential has been held back by regulatory scrutiny.  Despite trading far below its all-time high, many remain confident in its long-term value.

The question that lingers, however, is whether the token will finally break free from the shackles of its legal troubles or continue to hover in the shadow of uncertainty. There’s no shortage of factors influencing XRP’s price, from its entanglement in the SEC lawsuit to broader macroeconomic conditions. Each of these aspects holds the key to understanding XRP’s future.

Why XRP’s Future Hangs in the Balance

One of the most significant factors affecting XRP is its ongoing legal battle with the SEC. Since 2020, Ripple has been fighting accusations that its sales of XRP constituted an unregistered securities offering. In 2023, Ripple scored a partial victory when a judge ruled that the token’s programmatic sales to retail investors did not violate U.S. securities laws.  Sponsored

However, the legal fight is far from over. Earlier this month, the SEC filed an appeal against this ruling, specifically focusing on Ripple’s XRP sales to institutional investors, as well as sales by Ripple’s executives, Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen.

Legal experts, including attorney Jeremy Hogan, have been vocal in their criticism of the SEC’s tactics. Hogan referred to the appeal as a “chicken move,” accusing the regulatory body of trying to extend the case after missing an opportunity to put it to trial. 

The drawn-out nature of this lawsuit has undoubtedly impacted XRP’s price, causing many exchanges to delist the token and leaving institutional investors cautious. But Ripple isn’t backing down. In response to the SEC’s appeal, Ripple is also filing a cross-appeal to challenge parts of the court ruling that were less favorable. 

Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, remains confident that the courts will ultimately rule in Ripple’s favor. If Ripple succeeds, it could set a precedent for other cryptocurrencies currently under scrutiny by regulators. However, until that day comes, XRP’s price will likely remain tethered to the outcome of these legal proceedings.

Despite Legal Win, XRP Retail Interest Drops

Despite the recent legal victory, not all traders are convinced that XRP is poised for a massive breakout. Analysts are increasingly divided on whether the current market sentiment is genuinely bullish or just a temporary wave of optimism. 

XRP is up marginally this year, trading at around $0.5455, but this is a far cry from its historical high of $3.84. One key factor to consider is retail interest, which remains muted. According to Google search data, interest in Bitcoin—and by extension, cryptocurrencies like XRP—has hit a one-year low. 

While XRP’s community continues to be vocal on social media, analysts warn that much of this sentiment could be an “echo chamber.” The broader market appears less enthusiastic, with some fearing that XRP’s legal challenges may continue to overshadow any real progress.

This lukewarm sentiment is echoed in trading volume data. XRP’s trading activity has slowed in recent weeks, with many traders seemingly on the sidelines, waiting for the next big development in the SEC case. Some argue that the token is well-positioned to take off in the next altcoin season, especially if Bitcoin’s dominance starts to decline. 

Historically, XRP has performed well during alt seasons, most notably in 2017, when it surged by an astonishing 500X. However, these predictions are contingent on several factors lining up perfectly, including a favorable legal outcome and increased retail participation.

Overlooked Forces Driving XRP’s Next Big Breakout

Beyond legal battles and market sentiment, broader economic trends are playing a pivotal role in shaping XRP’s future. Among these, one often overlooked factor is the global currency landscape, especially the weakening Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen has hit a seven-year low against the U.S. dollar, driven by softening inflation and the Bank of Japan’s hesitation to raise interest rates.

Historically, weaker currencies boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies. If this pattern holds, XRP and other digital currencies could benefit from a more favorable environment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is showing signs of relief:

Inflationary pressures have started to ease.

The Federal Reserve is slowing down its aggressive rate hikes, which may lead to more liquidity flowing into riskier assets like crypto.

Although XRP’s price has remained largely flat in 2024, these macroeconomic shifts could provide the tailwinds necessary for a price surge. However, the potential for global economic instability remains as investors might seek safety in more stable assets like gold or even Bitcoin, depending on the overall risk climate.

Ripple’s Long-Term XRP Play

Ripple’s upcoming launch of its stablecoin, RLUSD, is another factor that could impact XRP’s price, though its influence may be more long-term. The stablecoin, pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar, is set to be available on both the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and Ethereum. 

While the introduction of RLUSD is exciting, stablecoins typically serve as a means of transferring value rather than speculative investments. However, the partnerships Ripple has secured with exchanges like Bitstamp and MoonPay could provide additional liquidity, potentially driving up XRP demand.

That said, RLUSD’s success depends on how quickly it gains retail and institutional adoption. While stablecoins play a key role in crypto, they don’t tend to generate the same excitement as more volatile assets. While RLUSD could bolster Ripple’s standing in the crypto world, it’s unlikely to move the needle on XRP’s price in the near term.

On the Flipside

The ongoing SEC lawsuit could drag on for years, creating uncertainty for XRP investors.

Market sentiment for XRP is mixed, with some analysts predicting a bullish run while others warn of a potential market correction.

Retail interest in cryptocurrencies, including XRP, remains low, making it difficult to predict when the next alt season will occur.

Why This Matters

The future of XRP hangs in the balance, with several key factors influencing its potential for growth. From legal challenges to global economic conditions, these variables will shape the digital asset’s role in the evolving cryptocurrency market. Investors should keep a close eye on both the Ripple lawsuit and broader market trends to understand what’s next for XRP.

Curious about the impact of the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC on XRP? This article explores why big investors are staying put despite the ongoing lawsuit:Why XRP’s Legal Battle Isn’t Scaring Off Big InvestorsCurious about the impact of the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC on XRP? This article explores why big investors are staying put despite the ongoing lawsuit:Ripple vs SEC: What Is Form C, and What Does It Mean for XRP?