Bloomberg Terminal Integrates Polymarket Election Data - "The Defiant"

Polymarket’s prediction data is poised to enter mainstream political discourse. On Sept. 3, Shayne Coplan, the CEO and founder of Polymarket, the leading web3 prediction market, announced that Bloomberg Terminal had integrated Polymarket, making the platform’s data available to a broad audience of mainstream news consumers. “Entering mainstream news and finance before our eyes,” Coplan tweeted. “What once was a fringe, sci-fi idea for transforming the flow of information is now becoming the new normal, as 10s of millions of people build habit around relying on Polymarket forecasts as a source of truth, to make sense of what’s going on in the world.” Michael McDonough, Bloomberg’s chief economist for financial products, announced that Bloomberg’s data terminal had begun integrating Polymarket on Aug. 29. McDonough shared a screenshot showing Polymarket’s election market data sandwiched between average polling data from RealClearPolitics (RPC) and data from PredictIt, a web2 political prediction market platform. Polymarket traders are currently betting that Donald Trump will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election with 51% probability, with Trump sitting on a slim lead ahead of Kamala Harris with 47%. Election markets on the web2 Betfair betting exchange similarly exhibit an implied probability of 50% for Trump and 48% for Harris. For comparison, FiveThirtyEight’s general election poll has Harris at a 3.1 point lead over Trump with 47% to 43.9%, while RPC’s multi-candidate poll shows Harris ahead by four points with 47% compared to Trump’s 43%. However, national polls reflect the anticipated popular vote and do not reflect expected electoral college and state results. Polymarket adoption surges The news comes as Polymarket is enjoying surging adoption amid the 2024 presidential election cycle, with Polymarket hosting record trade volume and active users for the fourth consecutive month during August. Data from Dune Analytics shows Polymarket hosting $472.9 million worth of trades from 63,616 different wallets last month. Daily volume tagged an all-time high of $29.8 million on Aug. 6, while daily users posted a record high of 9,555 on Aug. 23. The spike in activity is also driving new users to the platform. New user sign-ups similarly posted a fourth consecutive monthly high of 71,670, up 1,791% from 3,790 in April. Election markets accounted for 73.8% of volume on the platform during the week ending on Sept. 2. Weekly volume on Polymarket’s non-election markets is down 43% at $16.2 million after tagging a high of $28.3 million in late July. Read More: Polygon Miden Integrates QED Protocol To Accelerate Transaction Execution

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