Polymarket odds of RFK Jr dropping out soar before Aug. 23 address
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reportedly plans to drop out of the 2024 United States presidential race on Aug. 23.
On Aug. 21, RFK Jr.’s campaign announced that the presidential candidate would address the nation live from Phoenix on Aug. 23 “about the present historical moment and his path forward.” ABC News reported that, according to sources familiar with the decision, the announcement could focus on the Independent candidate dropping out of the race.
During an Aug. 20 interview, Kennedy’s running mate Nicole Shanahan suggested the presidential ticket might drop out and join with Republican candidate Donald Trump as a “unity party.” Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Glendale, Arizona, on Aug. 23, a few hours after RFK Jr.’s announcement in Phoenix — roughly 16 km away.
Since Aug. 20, the odds of several bets on predictions platform Polymarket centered around RFK Jr.’s campaign have surged. Odds on whether the Independent candidate will drop out before November rose from 51% on Aug. 20 to 98% at the time of publication, while the odds on leaving the presidential race before September surged from 8% on Aug. 20 to 90% at the time of publication.
Source: Polymarket
A question was added to the platform on Aug. 21 about whether RFK Jr. will endorse Trump during his live address. At the time of publication, Polymarket puts the odds at 93%. Cointelegraph contacted the Kennedy campaign, who declined to comment.
Initially running as a Democrat, RFK Jr. launched his campaign on April 19 in Boston, changing his party affiliation to Independent in October. He has openly criticized US President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign — before he dropped out on July 21 — and Trump’s run for the White House. In March, Trump, in turn, called Kennedy “the most Radical Left Candidate” in the presidential race.
Unusual campaign
In 2024, RFK Jr.’s campaign was shadowed by several reports highlighting the candidate’s unusual behavior. Among them included a photograph suggesting that Kennedy ate a dog during a trip to Patagonia — he claimed it was a goat — and a video in which he admitted to leaving a dead bear cub in New York City’s Central Park as a prank.
Legal challenges may also have barred RFK Jr. from the November ballot in New York — a case that could have repercussions across other US states. Locals challenged the Independent candidate’s claims that he resided in the Empire State instead of California, where he has a home. Under the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution, presidential and vice-presidential candidates from the same state are ineligible to receive that state’s electoral votes.
This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.