Market Wrap: Bitcoin Vulnerable to Rising Leverage Despite Short-Term Optimism

Bitcoin continued to trade in a tight range on Thursday and is roughly flat over the past 24 hours. Some analysts are concerned that rising leverage in the bitcoin futures market could precede a near-term price drop, while others expect the current trading range to result in further upside.

CryptoQuant analysts pointed to the slower pace of whales, or large bitcoin buyers, buying as a cautious market signal. Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest bitcoin’s price decline could stabilize at around $53,000, although upside appears to be limited beyond $60,000-$65,000.

With the end of year approaching, some analysts told CoinDesk that most investors will probably exit their long positions to lock in gains, which could make a sustained price rise to $100,000 BTC unlikely.

Open interest, or the total number of outstanding contracts, in the bitcoin futures market continues to rise despite the recent crypto sell-off.

“It is not common to see such a high open interest being sustained for such a long duration. This could suggest that the market is currently oversaturated with leverage,” Arcane Research wrote in a report earlier this week.

High leverage means bitcoin futures traders holding long positions could be vulnerable to liquidations (broad-based selling) if the BTC price continues to drift lower.

The chart below shows the recent decline in the average lifespan (ASOL), measured in days, of all spent transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. High values indicate that old coins are being spent as long-term holders take some profits amid higher market volatility, whereas low values indicate a slowdown in spending activity.

“During corrections, declining ASOL is a signal that investor confidence is improving, and fewer coins are spent,” blockchain data firm Glassnode tweeted on Wednesday. A confirmed trough in the ASOL indicator could point to a short-term market bottom similar to what occurred in July and October.

Most digital assets in the CoinDesk 20 ended the day higher.

Notable winners as of 21:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET):

Notable losers:

Source